Thursday, March 24, 2016

Weekly Market Review

Well it's a short week in the books as Americans celebrate the Easter holiday.

Everyone stood still for a moment as the terrorist attacks in Brussels flashed across screens earlier this week. My thoughts go out to all those injured and killed. I think it highlights a big gaping hole in the migrant issue. I just do not see this ending well which is painful to think. ISIS had warned they were sending militants in under the guise of refugees. It's a shame people still feel the need to hurt others.  Either way the markets seemed to shake it off rather easily.  In reality it will not have a big impact on 99% of business conducted globally. Tourism will drop off only to eventually resume barring no further attacks. I think this makes Brexit more likely as odd as that seems. It's just one big mess that seems to get only crazier every week in Europe.

Durable goods were released this week.  This is a widely followed measure of the economy.  As you can see the trend has been slightly down and sideways since late 2014. Coincidentally during that time the S&P has really not made much headway either.

All the talk has been about oil and stocks working in tandem. That might be true in the short run. However in the long run it will not matter. Good stocks will continue to go up no matter where oil goes after a long enough time period.  The bigger threat will be a stronger US Dollar. The more it rises the more earnings will be clipped at large multi-nationals. The greenback has been a bit weaker this quarter so far. I'm not expecting the same blame on currencies as last quarter.  Gold seems to be taking a breather after an impressive run this year.

The portfolio was pretty quiet this week. BoA/ML downgraded Altria while subsequently upgrading PM. Makes no sense to me but I'm not getting paid the big bucks to make that call. I probably should have worked for a big bank for big bucks. Oh well. To me they are both buys if you can get them below $59 & $93 respectively. PYPL was hit hard on a downgrade also. I'm not concerned one bit. Management provided guidance for the year and I believe it will be met.  I'll be looking forward to see if any momentum was gained in the first quarter.

That's all for now and have a great weekend.

The Long Haul Investor.

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