Wednesday, March 23, 2016

What's Going On?

I did not post about the Fed meeting last week as I was in a personal time crunch. Pretty much there will not be as many rate hikes as expected. That means one of two things.

It's possible inflation and the economy are a little softer than what the Fed would like to see despite what they say.  No matter what I thought it was a bit unrealistic rates would be raised four times this year after sitting near zero for almost a decade. Secondly the Fed's decision could hint that they see what other central banks are doing(negative rates or cuts), and realized they cannot raise at their original planned pace without causing a bigger rush into the USD.

I'm inclined to think there is a combination of both factors in this decision.  The rest of the world is slowing down, and the US economy is humming along at not a strong, but not terribly weak rate either. I think that is to the dismay of analysts & economists. For how much longer remains to be seen. Although it is entirely possible we cruise along here with growth ranging anywhere .5%-2%. Nothing to be excited about but compared to the rest of the world it looks pretty good.

I don't see to many bargains out there right now. Of the current stocks in the portfolio I'd only consider adding to HCP, PG, WWAV, PM, RAI, MO or CHD if they pulled back just a bit.

I had been eyeing Sherwin Williams or Valspar for an add. Then of course a buyout offer from SHW for VAL is going to merge the two companies. I guess that leaves me with only one left to look at. I'll wait to see if it appears the deal might fall through, but I'm not counting on that.

We have had a good surge from a few stocks including CMI, EMR, PYPL, and FB since February. Many of our other stocks have held steady which I am very pleased with. I'm anxiously waiting for March to end so I can calculate the portfolio results for the first quarter.

Not many stocks are looking cheap right now.  In the portfolio the only real values I see are IBM and maybe WAB from a historical perspective. I'd like one more solid pullback in the market to add to current positions and establish a few new ones. Right now it's not looking like I'll get a chance, but I'll do my best to be patient.

No comments :

Post a Comment