Thursday, September 29, 2016

Economic Data - GDP, Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence

There was a slew of economic data out this week that I haven't covered. Most recently we received the 3rd estimate of Q2 GDP, Durable Goods, and Consumer Confidence to name a few.

If you are not aware GDP estimates are routinely revised months later as new data comes in, and is re-analyzed. Today we received the third estimate of Q2 GDP.  It was reported instead of 1.1% growth, we actually had 1.4% growth from April-June 2016.


Next up were Durable Goods that came in flat. OK I know it came in at -0.037% to be exact!!! This is a pretty volatile number, but excluding transportation it was -0.4%. That's not what we'd like to see. Digging a bit deeper though it was found that non-military orders excluding aircraft nudged up 0.6%. That's a proxy for business spending so it's nice to see a boost there.

What seems rather contradictory considering the news(if you even watch it), and the crazy elections is that consumer confidence actually hit a post-recession high. The Conference Boards' Consumer Confidence Index notched a high of 104.1.  Note that this data series is different from the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index. The confidence index's are considered forward looking though. In other words it appears the economy is still on decent enough footing to avoid a recession.

**Update: I should have included pending home sales which came in weak at -2.4%.

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